Over the past decade, the United States has solidified its position as the world’s leading ethanol producer and exporter. After Brazil - once a top U.S. ethanol importer - significantly reduced its purchases in 2020, the U.S. ethanol market found new opportunities and expanded its global reach.

U.S. Increases Ethanol Exports and Gains Global Market Share
The United States has been instrumental in supplying the global ethanol market, accounting for around half of annual worldwide ethanol exports over the last 10 years. While Brazil used to be the primary importer of U.S. ethanol from 2017 to 2019, that dynamic changed in 2020 when Brazil ended its large-scale imports. Since then, the United States has strengthened exports to Canada, the United Kingdom, and the European Union, while continuing to serve markets like India, Colombia, and South Korea.
During the September 2023 - August 2024 U.S. corn marketing year, U.S. ethanol exports surged by 43 percent year over year, reaching a record 1.75 billion gallons. Nearly 600 million bushels of U.S. corn were processed to meet this export demand. These figures underscore how ethanol exports support domestic corn production, benefiting both farmers and biofuel producers.
Brazil’s Ethanol Market Is Changing
Historically, Brazil sourced the majority of its imported ethanol from the United States. However, after ending its tariff free quota in February 2023 (replacing it with an 18-percent import tariff), Brazil’s U.S. ethanol imports declined steadily between 2019 and 2022. At the same time, Brazil expanded its own ethanol output by increasing corn-based production, especially in the states of Mato Grosso, Goiás, and Mato Grosso do Sul.
Sugarcane remains Brazil’s main ethanol feedstock, but high global sugar prices prompted sugar mills to produce more sugar and less ethanol. Meanwhile, lower world corn prices bolstered the rise of corn-based ethanol capacity. From April to October 2024, corn ethanol production in Brazil’s South-Central region grew significantly, highlighting the country’s shift toward more diversified ethanol production.
Canada’s Biofuels Mandates Support U.S. Ethanol Imports
Following Brazil’s reduced purchases of U.S. ethanol, Canada emerged as the leading destination for U.S. exports, nearly doubling its import volumes from 2020 to 2023. Between January and September 2024, U.S. ethanol shipments to Canada exceeded previous year levels by 35.7 million gallons, reflecting steady growth.
This trend aligns with Canada’s Clean Fuel Regulation (CFR), which came into effect on July 6, 2022, and requires lower-carbon transportation fuels. Provincial regulations further reinforce higher renewable content in gasoline - most notably in Ontario and Quebec, where ethanol blend rates are slated to rise from 10 percent to 15 percent over time. With no major increases in Canadian ethanol production capacity on the horizon, U.S. exports are expected to remain a key supply source to meet Canada’s growing blending requirements.
U.S. Ethanol Exports Gain Market Share in the UK and EU
U.S. ethanol exports to the United Kingdom have soared since 2021, tripling by 2023. The UK switched from a 5-percent ethanol blend to a 10-percent blend in September 2021 to meet tougher renewable fuel targets set by the Renewable Transport Fuels Obligation program.
Because domestic UK ethanol production - primarily wheat based - cannot fully satisfy rising demand, the country relies on imports. U.S. corn-based ethanol has gained market share, in part due to competitive pricing versus Brazilian ethanol. U.S. shipments to the UK reached around 160 million gallons in 2023 and remained strong in 2024.The European Union imported nearly 130 million gallons of U.S. ethanol in 2023, with volumes from January to September 2024 already surpassing the previous year by 25 million gallons. While the EU has its own ethanol production, rising fuel ethanol consumption outpaces domestic output in certain member states.
Some countries, such as France, actively promote E10 and E85 blends, while others have lower or changing mandates. Overall, EU demand for ethanol remains robust, and imports from the United States fill the gap between consumption and domestic supply. The EU has implemented an import surveillance program to monitor volumes and origins, but so far, the U.S. continues to be a reliable supplier.
Asian Ethanol Imports Driven by Industrial Usage
India is among the top destinations for U.S. ethanol, importing nearly 129 million gallons between January and September 2024—a rise of about 92 million gallons from the previous year. Despite this surge, Indian policy prohibits biofuel imports for transportation, restricting use to industrial applications. While India aims to achieve a 15 percent ethanol blend in 2023/24 and 20 percent in 2024/25, domestic sugarcane ethanol production remains insufficient. Without policy shifts to allow more imports for fuel blending, these ambitious blend targets may remain out of reach.
South Korea also imports U.S. ethanol, primarily for industrial uses or for further export to Japan. Since South Korea does not have an ethanol mandate, annual volumes can vary widely, depending on industrial demand and shipment patterns.
Conclusion
Evolving policies, shifting production trends, and resilient global demand for both fuel and industrial-use ethanol have broadened U.S. export opportunities. While Brazil increases its corn-ethanol output and reduces its U.S. imports, other markets - particularly Canada and the UK - have stepped in to sustain and even expand demand for U.S. ethanol. India, the EU, and smaller but active markets like Colombia and South Korea also contribute to the diversification of U.S. ethanol export destinations.
Looking ahead, U.S. ethanol exports are poised to remain strong in the near term, underpinned by stable domestic corn production, competitive pricing, and global mandates that encourage blending. The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects 5.5 billion bushels of corn will go toward ethanol production in the 2024/25 marketing year, reflecting the continued importance of export demand. However, changes in policy or additional production capacity in other countries could again reshape the global ethanol trade landscape in the years to come.
The information provided in this market insight is for general informational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. It is not intended to offer any financial recommendations or endorsements. Any decisions made based on the content are the sole responsibility of the reader.
Data: USDA
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