The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s January wheat market update outlines a 2024/25 outlook with slight increases in domestic supplies and ending stocks, along with stable exports. Globally, the report highlights modest supply growth, reduced trade, and higher ending stocks, reflecting shifting trade patterns and regional production adjustments.
U.S. wheat imports are forecast to rise by 5 million bushels, with ending stocks up 15% to 798 million bushels.
Global wheat supplies increase slightly to 1,060.7 million tons, while trade is expected to drop to 212 million tons.
Projected global ending stocks grow by 0.9 million tons, reaching 258.8 million tons, driven by increases in Russia, Brazil, and Nigeria.

U.S. wheat supplies for 2024/25 are projected to grow modestly, driven by a 5-million-bushel increase in imports, reaching 130 million bushels, particularly in Hard Red Spring wheat. Seed use is raised by 2 million bushels to 64 million, while feed and residual use remains steady at 120 million bushels. Ending stocks are forecast at 798 million bushels, 15% higher than last year, while the average farm price is lowered to $5.55 per bushel, reflecting market trends.
Global wheat supplies are set to rise slightly, up 0.4 million tons to 1,060.7 million tons, as increased production in Syria and Pakistan offsets a decline in Uruguay. Consumption forecasts are down 0.6 million tons to 801.9 million, driven by reduced demand in Turkey, partially offset by Ukraine. Trade volumes are expected to fall to 212 million tons, with Russian exports dropping by 1 million tons to 46 million, significantly below the previous year’s 55.5 million tons.
World ending stocks are forecast to grow by 0.9 million tons to 258.8 million tons, reflecting increases in reserves for Russia, Brazil, Nigeria, and Ukraine. However, stock reductions are anticipated in Turkey, China, and Indonesia, illustrating region-specific market fluctuations.
The wheat market’s trajectory for 2024/25 reflects an interplay of stable U.S. domestic conditions and shifting global dynamics. While U.S. exports hold steady, global trade reductions, primarily from Russia and Ukraine, could reshape the international landscape. The rise in global ending stocks, despite lower consumption, highlights regional production disparities.
Hedgify empowers businesses to navigate these market shifts by providing tools to manage price risks effectively, ensuring resilience in the face of fluctuating global and domestic wheat markets.
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