The recent USDA WASDA report provides an insightful analysis into the wheat market for the 2024/25 season. This report highlights significant shifts in both domestic and global wheat markets, forecasting changes in production, consumption, and stock levels that could influence market trends.
U.S. wheat production is forecasted to increase to 1,858 million bushels for 2024/25, with ending stocks rising to 766 million bushels.
Global wheat supplies are expected to decrease slightly to 1,056.0 million tons, with production hitting a record 798.2 million tons.
Global wheat trade is projected to increase to 216.0 million tons, with Russia remaining the top exporter despite a slight decrease in exports.
The outlook for the 2024/25 U.S. wheat market anticipates larger supplies, with total projected supplies increasing by 6 percent from the previous year due to an increase in carry-in stocks and production. U.S. wheat production is expected to reach 1,858 million bushels, a 3 percent rise from the previous year, driven by higher harvested acreage and yields. Additionally, domestic use is forecasted to grow modestly by 1 percent, largely driven by higher feed and residual use. Ending stocks are expected to rise by 11 percent to 766 million bushels, marking the highest level in four years.
Globally, wheat supplies for 2024/25 are projected to slightly decrease by 2.2 million tons to 1,056.0 million, despite record-high production levels expected at 798.2 million tons. This decrease is attributed to lower carry-in stocks in key countries such as China and Russia. However, global consumption is set to reach a new high at 802.4 million tons due to increased use in food, seed, and industrial sectors, especially in India and China.
The global wheat trade for the 2024/25 season is forecasted to modestly increase by 0.4 million tons to 216.0 million tons. Russia is expected to remain the leading exporter, although its exports are projected to decline slightly. In contrast, exports from the United States, Australia, Argentina, Kazakhstan, and Canada are anticipated to increase, compensating for lower exports from Ukraine, the EU, and Turkey.
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The information provided in this market insight is for general informational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. It is not intended to offer any financial recommendations or endorsements. Any decisions made based on the content are the sole responsibility of the reader.
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