The USDA’s January update for the 2024/25 sugar market projects increased U.S. sugar supplies driven by higher beet sugar production, stronger imports, and adjusted beginning stocks. Mexico’s exports also see a slight increase from additional contracted imports during the marketing year.
U.S. sugar supply is forecast to increase by 242,943 STRV, reaching 14.494 million STRV, driven by higher beet sugar recovery rates and imports.
Ending stocks are projected at 1.939 million STRV, reflecting a stocks-to-use ratio of 15.44%.
Mexico’s exports rise by 9,434 MT, while exports to the U.S. under license remain steady at 531,409 MT.

U.S. sugar supply for 2024/25 is raised by 242,943 short tons, raw value (STRV), reaching 14.494 million STRV. Beet sugar production is projected to increase by 178,030 STRV to 5.338 million, driven by higher recovery rates from sliced sugarbeets, up from 14.751% to 15.106%. Imports are also revised upward, with high-tier tariff sugar imports rising by 40,387 STRV to a total of 462,235 STRV. Beginning stocks are adjusted upward by 24,054 STRV based on revised 2023/24 Sweetener Market Data (SMD).
With no changes in sugar use, the increased supply flows directly into ending stocks, now projected at 1.939 million STRV. This translates to a stocks-to-use ratio of 15.44%, reflecting improved market availability. Imports from molasses remain steady at 54,645 STRV.
Mexico’s sugar export outlook is adjusted to account for an additional 9,434 metric tons (MT) of previously contracted imports entering during 2024/25. Total exports increase by the same amount, while exports to the U.S. under license remain unchanged at 531,409 MT.
The U.S. sugar market sees a notable boost in supply from improved beet sugar recovery and increased imports, offering a higher stocks-to-use ratio. Mexico’s slight export increase complements stable supply dynamics in the region, ensuring steady market conditions.
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The information provided in this market insight is for general informational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. It is not intended to offer any financial recommendations or endorsements. Any decisions made based on the content are the sole responsibility of the reader.
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