The USDA’s January update for the 2024/25 oilseed market forecasts lower U.S. production driven by declines in soybean, peanut, rapeseed, and sunflowerseed output, partially offset by increased cottonseed production. Globally, reductions in oilseed production and lower soybean stocks highlight tightening market conditions despite robust crushing activity.
U.S. oilseed production is projected at 128.5 million tons, with soybean ending stocks reduced by 90 million bushels to 380 million.
Global oilseed production is forecast to decline by 0.3 million tons to 551.9 million, with notable reductions in rapeseed and soybean output.
Global soybean ending stocks are lowered to 128.4 million tons, driven by declines in U.S. and Brazilian reserves.

U.S. oilseed production is estimated at 128.5 million tons, down 2.7 million from the previous forecast, with soybean production reduced to 4.4 billion bushels. This reflects a 1.0-bushel-per-acre yield drop to 50.7 bushels and a slight decrease in harvested area to 86.1 million acres. Soybean ending stocks are lowered by 90 million bushels to 380 million, while soybean meal prices rise $10 to $310 per short ton. Soybean oil prices remain steady at 43 cents per pound, with increased exports offsetting reduced biofuel use.
Global oilseed production is forecast to decline by 0.3 million tons to 551.9 million, driven by reduced rapeseed output in India, Russia, and Uruguay, as well as lower soybean production in Russia and China. These declines are partially offset by higher sunflowerseed production in Russia and increased cottonseed output in China and Australia. Global soybean exports remain steady, while soybean crush rises by 1.9 million tons to 349.3 million, reflecting robust demand, particularly in Brazil.
Global soybean ending stocks are forecast at 128.4 million tons, a 3.5-million-ton reduction, primarily due to lower stocks in the United States and Brazil. The updated inclusion of Iraq in the global soybean balance sheet reflects its growing import demand, further contributing to increased global crush estimates.
The U.S. oilseed market faces pressure from reduced soybean production and tightening ending stocks, while steady prices and increased global crushing activity signal sustained demand. Globally, declining rapeseed and soybean production emphasize regional disparities, with strong exports from Brazil balancing supply challenges.
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