The USDA’s December 2024 dairy market update revises milk production upward for both 2024 and 2025, while forecasting lower prices for key dairy products such as cheese and butter. Below are the key developments in the dairy sector.
U.S. milk production for 2024 is increased, reflecting higher milk cow numbers. The 2025 forecast also anticipates more milk cows, though slower growth in milk per cow slightly offsets the overall increase. These adjustments signal continued expansion in the dairy supply chain.
Fat basis import forecasts for 2024 are lowered based on recent trade data, while 2025 projections rise due to expected increases in butter and cheese imports. Skim-solids import forecasts follow the same pattern, with reductions for 2024 and increases for 2025. Fat basis export forecasts are raised for both years, supported by stronger shipments of butter and cheese. However, skim-solids export forecasts are lowered as U.S. nonfat dry milk (NDM) becomes less competitive in global markets.
Cheese and butter prices for 2024 are forecasted lower due to current market trends, while NDM prices remain steady, and whey prices increase on stronger demand. As a result, the 2024 Class III milk price is reduced, while the Class IV price remains unchanged. The all-milk price for 2024 is lowered to $22.65 per cwt. For 2025, lower cheese and butter prices are expected to persist, offset partially by higher NDM and whey prices. The Class IV price rises, but the all-milk price drops slightly to $22.55 per cwt.
With U.S. milk production continuing to grow and price dynamics shifting, businesses in the dairy industry face an evolving landscape that emphasizes the need for effective price risk management.
The information provided in this market insight is for general informational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. It is not intended to offer any financial recommendations or endorsements. Any decisions made based on the content are the sole responsibility of the reader.
Bình luận