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Writer's pictureAvi Shaposhnik

U.S. Milk Production Grows in 2024 as Butter Prices Fall and Cheese Demand Tightens

The USDA WASDE report updated 2024 milk production forecast indicates increased output driven by higher productivity per cow. Butter prices are set to decline, while strong demand supports cheese, whey, and nonfat dry milk (NDM) prices heading into 2025.


  • U.S. milk production for 2024 is up due to higher output per cow, with the 2025 forecast unchanged.

  • 2025 import and export forecasts for butter, cheese, and whey-containing products are raised, reflecting strong demand.

  • Butter prices are lowered for 2024, while cheese, NDM, and whey prices are projected to rise into 2025.


Dairy Products
Dairy Products

The 2024 U.S. milk production forecast has been raised, as increased output per cow offsets a lower number of cows reported for the third quarter of 2024. The 2025 production forecast remains unchanged from last month.


Import forecasts for 2024 remain steady, while the skim-solids export forecast has been raised due to higher expected lactose shipments. For 2025, fat-basis imports are projected to rise, driven by increased butter and cheese shipments, while skim-solids imports stay unchanged. Exports are expected to grow for both fat and skim-solids in 2025, with higher projected shipments of cheese, butterfat products, whey, and dry skim milk.


Butter prices are expected to decline in 2024 due to falling prices since late September, leading to a lower Class IV price forecast. Cheese prices remain steady for 2024 but are forecast to rise in 2025, with tight inventory levels supporting demand. Both NDM and whey prices are raised for 2024 and 2025 on strong domestic and international demand. The Class III price for 2024 remains unchanged, while the Class IV price is reduced due to lower butter prices, despite rising NDM prices. The all milk price forecast is lowered to $22.75 per cwt for 2024 and is projected to rise to $22.85 per cwt for 2025.


As milk production increases and butter prices adjust, the dairy market will likely see price shifts influenced by changing demand dynamics for butter, cheese, and whey products. Hedgify’s platform can assist businesses in managing the impacts of these fluctuations to maintain price stability.


The information provided in this market insight is for general informational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. It is not intended to offer any financial recommendations or endorsements. Any decisions made based on the content are the sole responsibility of the reader.

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