The USDA’s December 2024 report details changes in U.S. meat and poultry production and trade forecasts, reflecting the impacts of new Mexican cattle import restrictions and disease-related disruptions. Below are the key developments affecting the market.
U.S. beef production for 2025 is forecast to lower due to Mexican cattle import restrictions, reducing feedlot placements.
Pork export forecasts for 2024 and 2025 are reduced, while broiler export projections rise on higher production.
Egg and turkey prices are raised for 2024 and 2025, reflecting supply constraints from HPAI-related culling.
U.S. red meat and poultry production for 2024 is revised upward, with increased beef and poultry output offsetting reduced pork production. Beef production rises on higher slaughter rates and heavier dressed weights, while pork output is lowered due to lighter dressed weights. Turkey's production for the fourth quarter has adjusted upward, though highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI)-related culling reduces egg production. For 2025, beef production is projected to lower due to feedlot placement reductions stemming from Mexican cattle import restrictions, and turkey and egg production are further constrained by ongoing HPAI-related impacts.
Beef imports for 2024 and 2025 are raised, driven by strong demand for processing-grade beef. However, tighter domestic supplies and less competitive pricing reduce 2025 beef export forecasts. Pork exports are lowered for both years, reflecting declining U.S. production and slowing demand growth in key markets. Broiler export forecasts are increased for both 2024 and 2025 on higher production and recent trade data, while turkey export forecasts remain steady. The 2024 turkey price forecast is raised on current price strength, with increases extending into early 2025. Egg prices are also revised higher for both years due to reduced production and inventories.
The discovery of New World screwworm in Chiapas, Mexico, has led to an indefinite restriction on cattle and bison imports from or through Mexico, effective November 22, 2024. This policy significantly affects the 2025 beef production forecast, particularly in the second half of the year, as fewer feedlot placements constrain supply. Subsequent policy updates will be incorporated into future forecasts.
With shifting meat and poultry production dynamics and tightened supplies, businesses face increased exposure to price and supply volatility, underscoring the need for effective risk management strategies.
The information provided in this market insight is for general informational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. It is not intended to offer any financial recommendations or endorsements. Any decisions made based on the content are the sole responsibility of the reader.
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