The USDA’s December 2024 report highlights upward revisions to U.S. cotton production and ending stocks, while global adjustments reflect increased production, consumption, and ending stocks. Below are the key takeaways from the report.
U.S. cotton production is revised to 14.3 million bales for 2024/25, with yields rising to 792 pounds per harvested acre.
Global cotton production grows to 117.4 million bales, led by a 1-million-bale increase in India’s crop.
Ending stocks for 2024/25 rise globally by 267,000 bales, with increases in the United States, Argentina, and Pakistan.
U.S. cotton production for 2024/25 is revised upward to nearly 14.3 million bales, a 64,000-bale increase from the previous forecast. This revision is driven by higher yields in the Southeast and Delta regions, which offset declines in the Southwest and West. The national yield estimate rises by 3 pounds to 792 pounds per harvested acre. Ending stocks are also increased to 4.4 million bales, resulting in a stocks-to-use ratio near 34%. The 2024/25 upland farm price remains unchanged at 66 cents per pound, with no adjustments to exports, imports, domestic use, or beginning stocks.
Global cotton production for 2024/25 is raised by 1.2 million bales to 117.4 million, led by a 1-million-bale increase in India’s crop. Additional increases are noted for Argentina, Benin, and Brazil, while Mali and Burkina Faso face production declines. World cotton consumption rises by 570,000 bales, with growth in India, Pakistan, and Vietnam offsetting a reduction in China. Projected exports increase slightly by 80,000 bales, reflecting higher shipments from Brazil, Benin, Cameroon, and Senegal. Global ending stocks are raised by 267,000 bales to 91.4 million, supported by higher stocks in Argentina, the United States, and Pakistan.
India’s 2024/25 production increase of 1 million bales plays a significant role in global supply growth. However, its 2023/24 beginning stocks are lowered by 500,000 bales due to upward revisions in last year’s consumption estimates, tightening its supply cushion. These shifts underscore India’s growing influence on the global cotton market.
With U.S. and global cotton supplies growing, businesses face a shifting market landscape that underscores the need to monitor price and inventory fluctuations closely.
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