The USDA’s latest forecast for the 2024/25 U.S. cotton balance sheet projects higher production and ending stocks alongside reduced exports. On a global scale, production, consumption, trade, and ending stocks are all revised upward, reflecting shifts in key producing and consuming countries.
U.S. cotton production for 2024/25 is increased to 14.4 million bales due to higher yields, while exports are lowered to 11.0 million bales, raising ending stocks to 4.8 million bales.
Global production rises to 119.4 million bales, driven by a 1.8-million-bale increase in China, while consumption and trade see slight increases.
The U.S. season average upland farm price is reduced to 65 cents per pound, reflecting increased production and elevated ending stocks.

U.S. all-cotton production is revised upward by 159,000 bales to 14.4 million, driven by a 44-pound increase in yield to 836 pounds per harvested acre. Harvested area declines, particularly in the Southwest, but stronger yields across the Southeast, Delta, and Southwest offset this reduction.
Projected exports are lowered by 300,000 bales to 11.0 million, while ending stocks increase to 4.8 million bales, resulting in a stocks-to-use ratio of approximately 38%. The season average upland farm price is reduced to 65 cents per pound.
World cotton production for 2024/25 is raised to 119.4 million bales, a 2-million-bale increase. China accounts for most of the growth with a 1.8-million-bale increase, while Australia and the U.S. also contribute to higher outputs. Pakistan’s production, however, is revised downward.
Global consumption is up 100,000 bales, with increases in Bangladesh and Vietnam offsetting declines in Turkey. Exports are raised by 225,000 bales as growth in Brazil, Australia, and India outpaces the U.S. reduction. Global ending stocks rise by nearly 1.9 million bales, led by increases in China, the U.S., Australia, and India, while Brazil experiences a reduction.
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The information provided in this market insight is for general informational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. It is not intended to offer any financial recommendations or endorsements. Any decisions made based on the content are the sole responsibility of the reader.
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