The USDA’s January update for the 2024/25 corn market projects lower U.S. production, exports, and ending stocks, alongside a modest price increase for producers. Globally, however, corn production is expected to rise in key regions like China and Russia, with trade adjustments shaping market dynamics.
U.S. corn production is forecast to fall by 276 million bushels to 14.9 billion, with ending stocks down 198 million bushels.
Global corn production increases, led by record-high output in China at 294.9 million tons, despite overall coarse grain production declining by 4.8 million tons.
Global corn ending stocks decline by 3.1 million tons, with foreign stocks rising primarily in China.

U.S. corn production is forecast to drop to 14.9 billion bushels, a reduction of 276 million bushels, due to a yield decline to 179.3 bushels per acre. Total usage is lowered by 75 million bushels to 15.1 billion, with feed and residual use cut by 50 million bushels and exports reduced by 25 million bushels to 2.5 billion. Ending stocks are projected to decrease by 198 million bushels, while the season-average farm price is raised by $0.15 to $4.25 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production is forecast to decline by 4.8 million tons to 1.494 billion tons. However, foreign corn production is set to rise, driven by record-high production in China at 294.9 million tons and gains in Russia. Trade volumes reflect mixed trends, with U.S. and Brazilian exports reduced, while Turkey’s imports are increased. Conversely, China, South Korea, and Japan are expected to lower their imports.
Global corn ending stocks are expected to fall by 3.1 million tons to 293.3 million tons, despite foreign stocks rising, primarily in China. This highlights the contrasting dynamics between lower U.S. stocks and stronger foreign reserves.
The U.S. corn market faces downward pressure from reduced production and tighter stocks, even as global production sees gains in key markets like China. Trade adjustments highlight regional variations in demand and supply, with the U.S. and Brazil scaling back exports while Turkey boosts imports. Price increases for U.S. producers reflect tighter domestic conditions amid global growth.
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