USDA WASDE's outlook for the U.S. and global soybean markets in 2024/25 indicates a tightening supply due to lower production, reduced exports, and decreased ending stocks.
U.S. soybean production is forecast to fall to 4.5 billion bushels, with ending stocks reduced by 80 million bushels to 470 million.
Global soybean production is projected to decline to 425.4 million tons, mainly due to lower output in the U.S. and India.
Global soybean ending stocks are expected to drop by 2.9 million tons to 131.7 million, with notable reductions in the U.S., Brazil, and Argentina.
U.S. soybean production is forecasted at 4.5 billion bushels, a reduction of 121 million bushels due to lower yields, with the largest declines in Iowa, Illinois, and Minnesota. This reduction in supply has led to a decrease in projected exports by 25 million bushels, bringing total exports to 1.8 billion bushels. Soybean crush projections are also down by 15 million bushels to 2.4 billion, reflecting lower demand for soybean meal both domestically and internationally. Consequently, U.S. ending stocks are lowered by 80 million bushels to 470 million bushels. The season-average price remains stable at $10.80 per bushel, while the soybean oil price rises slightly by 1 cent to 43 cents per pound.
Global soybean production is now forecast at 425.4 million tons, down 3.5 million tons due to production declines in the U.S. and India. India's production has been lowered by 0.2 million tons to 12.6 million based on information from the Soybean Processors Association of India (SOPA). Despite these declines, global exports are projected to increase, primarily due to higher shipments from Brazil, Canada, and Benin. These increases are nearly offset by a reduction in U.S. exports. Import demand is expected to rise, led by Pakistan.
Although Pakistan's soybean crush is projected to increase, it is more than offset by a decrease in U.S. crush levels. Global ending stocks for soybeans are forecast to drop by 2.9 million tons to 131.7 million tons, with reductions in stocks for the United States, Brazil, and Argentina contributing to this decline.
As soybean supplies tighten and stocks decline both in the U.S. and globally, businesses dependent on soybeans may consider strategies to mitigate potential price and supply volatility. Hedgify’s solutions offer support for managing the potential impacts of these market changes on operational costs.
The information provided in this market insight is for general informational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. It is not intended to offer any financial recommendations or endorsements. Any decisions made based on the content are the sole responsibility of the reader.
Comments