The latest update from the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) presents a detailed analysis of the rice market for the 2023/24 season.
U.S. rice exports for 2023/24 are raised by 3.0 million cwt to 91.0 million, with ending stocks up by 2.0 million cwt to 43.5 million, despite a decrease in domestic use by 5.0 million cwt to 157.0 million.
Global rice supplies for 2023/24 are increased by 0.9 million tons to 693.5 million, while consumption drops by 1.5 million tons to 521.3 million due to reduced consumption in China.
Global rice trade is up by 0.4 million tons to 52.9 million, with ending stocks raised by 2.5 million tons to 172.2 million, primarily due to stock increases in China, Vietnam, and Bangladesh.
In the U.S., rice supplies remain unchanged, however, domestic and residual use is reduced by 5.0 million cwt to 157.0 million, primarily affecting long-grain rice. Conversely, total exports are forecasted to increase by 3.0 million cwt to 91.0 million, driven by robust long-grain exports, which are set to reach their highest levels since the 2016/17 season at 70.0 million cwt. Despite the increased exports, the overall reduction in domestic use leads to an increase in ending stocks by 2.0 million cwt to 43.5 million.
Globally, the rice outlook is characterized by larger supplies, now estimated at 693.5 million tons due to higher beginning stocks in Cambodia and Burma. However, global consumption is projected to decrease by 1.5 million tons to 521.3 million, with significant reductions in China due to export restrictions from India and fewer Chinese auctions of old-crop rice. Trade is modestly higher, up by 0.4 million tons to 52.9 million, with increased exports from Burma, Cambodia, Vietnam, and the United States.
The global rice trade dynamics are shifting with a 0.4 million ton increase in trade volume to 52.9 million tons, largely due to enhanced export capabilities of Burma, Cambodia, Vietnam, and the U.S. This increase more than offsets a decline in China's exports.
The 2023/24 rice market shows a stable supply in the U.S. with adjusted domestic consumption and rising exports, leading to an increase in ending stocks. Internationally, the market experiences an increase in supply and trade but a notable decrease in consumption, particularly due to policy changes in major rice-consuming nations.
This comprehensive market outlook affirms Hedgify's role in enabling businesses to effectively manage risks associated with fluctuations in rice prices and supply chains.
The information provided in this market insight is for general informational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. It is not intended to offer any financial recommendations or endorsements. Any decisions made based on the content are the sole responsibility of the reader.
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