The USDA’s January report on the 2024/25 rice market reveals record U.S. yields, higher domestic use, and reduced ending stocks. Globally, rice supplies, consumption, and trade are forecast to decline, with tighter ending stocks led by lower production in China.
U.S. rice production is estimated at 222.1 million cwt, with record yields of 7,748 pounds per acre and ending stocks reduced to 43.5 million cwt.
Global rice supplies are forecast to decline by 0.4 million tons to 712.4 million, led by lower production in China.
World rice ending stocks are projected at 182.1 million tons, with reductions in China, Bangladesh, and the U.S. offset partially by gains in Vietnam and Thailand.

U.S. rice production for 2024/25 is estimated at 222.1 million cwt, up 2.3 million from the previous forecast, driven by record yields of 7,748 pounds per acre. Domestic use is projected to rise by 6 million cwt to 165 million, while exports remain unchanged. However, ending stocks are revised down by 3.2 million cwt to 43.5 million, though still 9% higher than the prior year. The season-average price for long-grain rice is lowered to $14.30 per cwt, while medium- and short-grain prices are raised to $14.80 per cwt.
Global rice supplies are forecast to decrease by 0.4 million tons to 712.4 million, primarily due to reduced production estimates for China. Consumption is lowered slightly to 530.2 million tons, reflecting reduced demand in China and Bangladesh. Trade is forecast to fall by 0.2 million tons to 57.9 million, with Vietnam and Thailand lowering export expectations.
World rice ending stocks are projected at 182.1 million tons, down 0.3 million tons from the previous forecast. The decline is attributed to lower reserves in China, Bangladesh, the U.S., and Pakistan, partially offset by gains in Vietnam, Nigeria, and Thailand.
The U.S. rice market demonstrates robust production and growing domestic use, though tightening stocks highlight the balance between demand and supply. Globally, declining supplies, consumption, and trade reflect regional challenges, particularly in China, while adjusted trade volumes in Vietnam and Thailand signal shifting dynamics in export markets.
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