The USDA’s latest WASDA report offers an updated forecast for the U.S. milk market in 2024, revealing adjustments in production, trade, and prices.
The milk production forecast for 2024 is lowered due to slower growth in milk per cow, despite higher cow numbers.
2024 commercial exports are raised on a fat basis but lowered on a skim-solids basis, with 2025 exports expected to decline on both bases.
Dairy product prices for 2024 and 2025 are raised due to tighter milk supplies, with the all milk price forecast increased to $22.25 per cwt for 2024 and $22.50 per cwt for 2025.
The milk production forecast for 2024 is lowered from last month due to slower growth in milk per cow, despite an increase in cow numbers. The forecast for 2025 follows a similar trend, with reduced milk production expectations resulting from slower growth in milk per cow offsetting a larger cow inventory.
For 2024, commercial exports on a fat basis are raised due to increased butter and cheese shipments, while skim-solids basis exports are lowered because of reduced nonfat dry milk (NDM) and lactose exports. In 2025, both fat basis and skim-solids basis exports are expected to decline. Fat basis imports for 2024 are raised, reflecting higher butter and butterfat product imports, while skim-solids basis imports are lowered. For 2025, imports remain unchanged on a fat basis but are reduced on a skim-solids basis.
The 2024 price forecasts for cheese, butter, NDM, and whey are raised based on recent price strength and expected tighter milk supplies. As a result, Class III and Class IV milk prices are also raised. The all milk price forecast is increased to $22.25 per cwt. This trend of stronger prices due to tighter supplies is expected to continue into 2025, with further increases in butter, cheese, NDM, and whey prices, raising the all milk price forecast to $22.50 per cwt.
The overall outlook for the U.S. milk market in 2024 and 2025 indicates tighter supplies leading to higher prices across various dairy products. This environment of constrained supply and rising prices presents both challenges and opportunities for the dairy industry.
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The information provided in this market insight is for general informational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. It is not intended to offer any financial recommendations or endorsements. Any decisions made based on the content are the sole responsibility of the reader.
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