Mexico's sugarcane production is adjusting due to fluctuating sucrose recovery rates and yield improvements, while the U.S. beet and cane sugar sectors are adapting to environmental stresses and trade policy shifts.
Mexico’s sugar production for 2023/24 is estimated at 4.649 million MT, increasing to 5.189 million MT in 2024/25, with significant exports to the U.S. market.
U.S. beet sugar production for 2024/25 is projected at 5.111 million STRV, with cane sugar production also expected to rise, amidst varied import adjustments.
Trade policies and environmental factors continue to heavily influence sugar production and market dynamics in both Mexico and the U.S.
For the 2023/24 season, Mexico’s sugar production is projected at 4.649 million metric tons (MT), an increase largely driven by improved sugarcane yield, now estimated at 62.73 MT/ha, and sucrose recovery rates at 10.19%. However, concerns remain regarding the potential unharvested area due to inadequate sugar content. The proportion of low-polarity sugar, primarily exported to the U.S., continues to decrease, representing 6.50% of total production. Looking ahead to 2024/25, production is expected to rise to 5.189 million MT, with harvested areas increasing but remaining below earlier forecasts. Exports to the U.S. are anticipated to reach 1.024 million MT, assuming stable U.S. import needs. Domestic consumption is projected at 4.236 million MT due to population growth, with ending stocks aimed at covering early 2025/26 needs.
In the United States, beet sugar production for 2023/24 has been adjusted downward by 49,192 short tons, raw value (STRV) to 5.095 million STRV, influenced by environmental stress impacting sugar beet storage and extraction effectiveness. The 2024/25 beet sugar output is marginally higher at 5.111 million STRV, based on favorable planting progress and yield expectations. Cane sugar adjustments reflect a decrease for 2023/24 but a projected increase in 2024/25 due to expected normal weather and slight area expansion in Louisiana. Import adjustments include increased TRQ imports from the Philippines and stable projections for 2024/25 aligned with WTO and FTA commitments.
Mexico's sugar trade with the U.S. is crucial, with substantial exports forming a key component of bilateral trade agreements. The U.S. adjusts its sugar import quotas based on domestic production fluctuations and international trade commitments, influencing global sugar price dynamics and availability.
Both Mexico and the U.S. are navigating challenges such as environmental impacts on production and intricate trade regulations that affect their sugar markets. Mexico’s production adjustments and the U.S.’s strategic import management highlight the interdependence of these markets and the critical role of policy in shaping trade flows.
The information provided in this market insight is for general informational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. It is not intended to offer any financial recommendations or endorsements. Any decisions made based on the content are the sole responsibility of the reader.
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