Livestock and Poultry - July 2023

The U.S. red meat and poultry production forecast for 2023 is showing an overall increase, except for pork, which saw a minor reduction. Beef production is expected to rise due to higher steer, heifer, cow, and bull slaughter. However, pork production is expected to be slightly lower in the second and third quarters, despite an increase in fourth-quarter slaughter. Broiler and turkey production are on the rise, driven by second-quarter slaughter data, with turkey production also benefiting from hatchery data. Egg production has been raised for the second quarter based on recent hatchery information. Looking ahead to 2024, beef production forecasts have been revised downward as fed cattle marketing are shifted, and pork production is reduced due to producers' intentions to decrease farrowings in the second half of 2023 and the first half of 2024. Nonetheless, a faster growth rate in pigs per litter is expected to partially offset the lower farrowings. Poultry and egg production forecasts remain unchanged from previous estimates.

In terms of trade dynamics, beef imports for 2023 are higher based on recent trade data, while exports experience a slight reduction. Pork imports also saw a slight increase for 2023, while exports for both 2023 and 2024 were raised due to continued demand strength from China and several Latin American countries. Notably, broiler export forecasts remain unchanged, but turkey exports have been raised for both 2023 and 2024. As for prices, cattle and hog price forecasts for 2023 have been adjusted upward due to firm demand and relatively tight supplies, with this strength expected to carry into 2024. However, broiler and turkey prices in 2023 have been reduced based on current market prices and higher production levels. For 2024, turkey prices are projected to be lower, while broiler prices remain unchanged. Egg prices for 2023 have experienced a slight increase based on second-quarter prices, while no changes have been made to the outlying quarters.

In conclusion, the latest insights on livestock and poultry production and prices reveal a mixed outlook. The forecast shows growth in beef, broiler, and turkey production, while pork production faces some challenges. Import and export trends reflect changing demand dynamics, particularly with strong demand from China and Latin American countries driving higher exports. Cattle and hog prices are on an upward trajectory due to robust demand and limited supplies. On the other hand, broiler and turkey prices are seeing downward adjustments due to current market conditions.

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