Global Wheat Outlook: Increased Consumption Amid Lower Trade and Stocks

According to the latest USDA report, the 2024/25 U.S. wheat supply and demand outlook anticipates slightly higher domestic use, leading to lower ending stocks. Food use is projected to rise by 4 million bushels to 970 million, reflecting a 2% increase in wheat flour grind from the previous year. As a result, U.S. ending stocks are expected to decline by 4 million bushels to 794 million, though this remains 14% higher than last year. The season-average farm price remains unchanged at $5.55 per bushel.

• Global wheat supplies are forecast to rise by 0.6 million tons to 1,061.3 million, driven by increased production in Kazakhstan and Argentina.

• Global wheat consumption is expected to grow by 1.8 million tons to 803.7 million, primarily due to higher feed and residual use in the EU, Kazakhstan, Thailand, and Ukraine.

• World wheat trade is projected to decline by 3.0 million tons to 209.0 million, with notable export reductions from the EU, Mexico, Russia, Turkey, and Ukraine.

China, last year’s largest wheat importer at 13.6 million tons, is set to reduce imports by 2.5 million tons to 8.0 million, marking the lowest level in five years. This decline reflects a continued sluggish import pace.

Global wheat ending stocks for 2024/25 are expected to fall by 1.3 million tons to 257.6 million, largely due to lower reserves in China. However, stock increases in Russia, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine will partially offset this decline.

As wheat markets navigate shifting trade flows and rising domestic consumption, businesses exposed to price volatility may benefit from proactive hedging strategies.

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