The latest USDA WASDE report highlights a stable outlook for the U.S. wheat market while signaling notable global shifts in supply, production, and trade dynamics. Despite challenges in key production regions, global wheat availability remains strong, with projected increases in supply and trade for the 2024/25 season.
Global wheat supplies for 2024/25 are projected to rise by 1.5 million tons to 1,062.1 million tons.
World wheat production is expected to decrease by 1.4 million tons to 796.9 million tons, with notable reductions in the EU.
Global wheat trade is forecasted to grow by 1.7 million tons, reaching 216.5 million tons due to increased exports from Australia, Canada, and Ukraine.
The 2024/25 U.S. wheat outlook remains unchanged from last month, with the season-average farm price holding steady at $5.70 per bushel. Domestic supply conditions are stable with no significant revisions in production or stock levels.
Global wheat supplies are projected to rise by 1.5 million tons to 1,062.1 million tons, driven by higher beginning stocks, particularly in Canada, despite a reduction in world wheat production to 796.9 million tons. While the EU faced a 4.0 million ton production decline due to poor weather, gains in Australia and Ukraine partially offset this drop.
Global wheat trade is expected to increase by 1.7 million tons to 216.5 million tons, with higher exports projected for Australia, Canada, and Ukraine. This more than compensates for reduced exports from the EU, which has been impacted by unfavorable harvest conditions.
Despite lower production in key regions like the EU, the global wheat market remains well-supplied, with increased beginning stocks and strong export activity balancing out production shortfalls. These factors contribute to a stable market outlook for 2024/25, with projected global ending stocks increasing slightly to 257.2 million tons.
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The information provided in this market insight is for general informational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. It is not intended to offer any financial recommendations or endorsements. Any decisions made based on the content are the sole responsibility of the reader.
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