The USDA’s December 2024 report offers a steady outlook for the U.S. rice market with minor adjustments by class, while global dynamics highlight record trade volumes amid supply challenges. Below are the report’s key insights.
U.S. long-grain rice exports are lowered to 72.0 million cwt, offset by increased medium- and short-grain exports of 28.0 million cwt.
Global rice trade is projected at a record 58.1 million tons, supported by higher exports from Southeast Asia and Brazil.
World rice stocks for 2024/25 are forecasted at 182.5 million tons, slightly lower month-on-month but higher year-on-year due to India’s stock increases.
The global rice outlook for 2024/25 reflects slightly lower supplies, reduced consumption, higher trade, and modestly lower ending stocks. Supplies are trimmed by 0.3 million tons to 712.8 million, impacted by reduced production in the Philippines due to November typhoon damage. World consumption is marginally lower at 530.3 million tons, reflecting declines in Cambodia and Nepal, partially offset by increased usage in Brazil and Indonesia. Global trade reaches a record 58.1 million tons, buoyed by higher exports from Cambodia, Vietnam, Thailand, and Brazil.
World ending stocks for 2024/25 are forecasted to decrease by 0.2 million tons to 182.5 million tons, though they remain 3 million tons above 2023/24 levels. India’s inventory increases account for much of the year-on-year growth. Despite the decline in U.S. long-grain rice shipments, robust exports from other major suppliers support record global trade levels.
The record global rice trade emphasizes the importance of proactive risk management to navigate shifting supply and demand patterns in international markets.
The information provided in this market insight is for general informational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. It is not intended to offer any financial recommendations or endorsements. Any decisions made based on the content are the sole responsibility of the reader.
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