The 2024/25 outlook for the U.S. rice market highlights a scenario of increased supplies, exports, domestic usage, and ending stocks.
U.S. rice supplies for 2024/25 are projected at 305.5 million cwt, up 5 percent, with production at 220.2 million cwt and imports at a record 44.5 million cwt.
Global rice production is forecasted at a record 527.6 million tons, driving a slight increase in global trade to 53.8 million tons despite export restrictions.
U.S. rice exports are expected to expand significantly, reaching 100.0 million cwt, with ending stocks increasing by 12 percent to 45.5 million cwt.
For the 2024/25 season, total U.S. rice supplies are forecasted at 305.5 million cwt, up 5 percent from the previous year. This increase is supported by higher production, beginning stocks, and record imports projected at 44.5 million cwt. U.S. rice production is expected to rise slightly by 1 percent to 220.2 million cwt, driven by increased harvested area despite slightly lower yields projected at 7,635 pounds per acre. Domestic and residual use is anticipated to reach a record 160.0 million cwt. Exports are also set to increase by 6.0 million cwt to 100.0 million cwt, bolstered by larger supplies and reduced U.S. prices. Consequently, ending stocks are expected to rise by 12 percent to 45.5 million cwt.
Globally, the rice outlook for 2024/25 anticipates increasing supplies, reaching a new high with a record production of 527.6 million tons, surpassing the lower beginning stocks. Major increases are expected in India, China, Bangladesh, and Indonesia. Global consumption is also projected to hit a record 526.4 million tons, with significant usage increases in India, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Bangladesh. Despite these increases, global trade is forecast to rise only slightly to 53.8 million tons, constrained by export restrictions from India. Nonetheless, global ending stocks are set to increase for the first time since 2020/21, marking a slight rise to 176.1 million tons.
The U.S. is positioned to capitalize on its increased supplies with a projected rise in exports. Meanwhile, the global market faces ongoing export restrictions from India, limiting its export potential despite an increase in production. This dynamic presents both challenges and opportunities in the rice trade, particularly affecting countries dependent on rice imports.
The U.S. rice market is experiencing a period of growth across all fronts—supplies, domestic use, exports, and stocks—indicating a solid base for future market stability. Internationally, the rice market is robust, with record production and consumption levels, though trade flows remain below the peak levels seen before 2022.
Hedgify's innovative financial tools can help stakeholders in the rice market manage the risks associated with these dynamic changes, ensuring stable pricing and supply chain operations.
The information provided in this market insight is for general informational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. It is not intended to offer any financial recommendations or endorsements. Any decisions made based on the content are the sole responsibility of the reader.
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