The USDA’s December 2024 report highlights a nuanced outlook for the U.S. and global wheat markets, with stronger U.S. export prospects contrasting with declining global production. Below are the key takeaways from the latest wheat market analysis.
U.S. wheat exports for 2024/25 are projected at 850 million bushels, with ending stocks lowered to 795 million bushels.
Global wheat production and trade are forecasted to decline, with supplies reduced by 0.6 million tons to 1,060.4 million tons.
Russia’s wheat exports are constrained by quotas, creating opportunities for increased U.S. and Ukrainian exports.
The U.S. 2024/25 wheat outlook reflects increased supplies and stronger export activity, while domestic use remains unchanged. Imports were revised upward by 5 million bushels to 125 million, driven by robust demand for Hard Red Spring wheat. Exports are forecasted to rise by 25 million bushels to 850 million, buoyed by a notable 15-million-bushel increase in White wheat shipments to East Asian markets. Meanwhile, projected ending stocks dropped 20 million bushels to 795 million, though this figure still represents a 14% increase compared to last year. The season-average farm price holds steady at $5.60 per bushel.
Globally, wheat supplies for 2024/25 are expected to decline slightly by 0.6 million tons to 1,060.4 million tons, as reduced production offsets larger beginning stocks. European Union production has been lowered by 1.3 million tons to 121.3 million due to poor harvest outcomes in several member states, while Brazil’s production is also expected to decrease. Trade is forecasted to contract by 1 million tons to 213.7 million, primarily due to reduced export capacities in Russia and the EU, although U.S. and Ukrainian exports are projected to grow. Despite a slight increase in global ending stocks to 257.9 million tons, they remain at their lowest level since the 2015/16 marketing year.
Russia’s wheat exports are forecasted to fall by 1 million tons to 47.0 million due to export quotas, even with a strong start to the marketing year. Conversely, the U.S. and Ukraine are capitalizing on export opportunities, bolstered by demand from key markets. Global trade headwinds, particularly in Europe and Russia, are reshaping market dynamics, opening avenues for other exporters.
The trends in U.S. wheat exports underscore how strategic risk management tools can help businesses navigate market volatility effectively.
The information provided in this market insight is for general informational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. It is not intended to offer any financial recommendations or endorsements. Any decisions made based on the content are the sole responsibility of the reader.
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