The latest USDA WASDE report highlights reductions in both U.S. and global cotton production for 2024/25, accompanied by lower exports and ending stocks. With tighter supplies across key regions, the balance between trade and consumption is also under pressure, signaling a more constrained market environment moving forward.
U.S. cotton production for 2024/25 is forecast to drop by 600,000 bales, with ending stocks lowered to 4.0 million bales.
Global cotton production is reduced by 1.2 million bales, with world ending stocks down by 1.1 million bales to 76.5 million.
Global cotton trade is expected to fall by 550,000 bales, driven by reduced imports from key countries such as China and Vietnam.
The U.S. cotton production forecast for 2024/25 is lowered to 14.5 million bales, down 600,000 bales from the previous estimate, primarily due to reduced yields in the Southwest. Exports are revised down by 200,000 bales to 11.8 million, while ending stocks are cut by 500,000 bales, leaving 4.0 million bales or 29% of projected use. The season-average farm price remains steady at 66 cents per pound.
Global cotton production for 2024/25 is reduced by 1.2 million bales, driven by lower output in the U.S., India, and Pakistan, which offsets an increase in China’s crop. World ending stocks are down 1.1 million bales to 76.5 million, reflecting tighter global supply conditions.
Global cotton trade is projected to decline by 550,000 bales, with China, Vietnam, Turkey, and Bangladesh reducing imports, while India’s imports are expected to increase. The decrease in trade, combined with weaker consumption, reflects a more cautious global demand outlook.
Both U.S. and global cotton markets are experiencing tightening supplies due to lower production and reduced trade activity. The cutbacks in output and stock levels signal a more constrained market, with stable prices providing some relief amidst falling supply.
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