The 2024/25 soybean outlook for the U.S. indicates an increase in both beginning and ending stocks, shaped by adjustments in domestic uses and exports in the previous season. Internationally, the oilseed market, including soybeans, faces reductions in production forecasts and alterations in global stock levels.
U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2024/25 are projected to increase, with stable pricing maintained for soybeans, meal, and oil.
Global oilseed production is forecast to decrease, with significant reductions in rapeseed output from Australia and the EU.
Global soybean stocks are adjusted downward, reflecting lower production estimates and increased exports, particularly from Brazil and Paraguay.
The U.S. soybean market for 2024/25 is characterized by an upward revision in stock levels, with beginning stocks rising due to a 10 million bushel reduction in the 2023/24 crush, attributed to lower domestic soybean meal use, somewhat mitigated by increased exports. Similarly, soybean oil use domestically has declined for 2023/24, with this drop partially balanced by a rise in exports. Consequently, ending stocks for 2024/25 are projected to be 455 million bushels, an increase of 10 million from earlier estimates. Prices for soybeans remain stable at $11.20 per bushel, with no changes in the forecast for soybean meal and oil prices, remaining at $330 per short ton and 42 cents per pound, respectively.
Globally, the 2024/25 oilseed production forecast is reduced by 1.3 million tons to 685.8 million, primarily due to decreased rapeseed output in Australia and the European Union. Australian rapeseed production is revised downwards due to a reduced harvested area, and in the EU, specifically France, yield expectations are lowered.
The global soybean outlook for 2024/25 reflects lower beginning and ending stocks, primarily influenced by adjustments in Brazil and Paraguay. Brazilian stocks are revised down by 1.0 million to 153.0 million, following state agency assessments of the impact of flooding in Rio Grande do Sul. Paraguay’s stocks are also adjusted downward due to increased exports from the previous marketing year. Consequently, global ending soybean stocks are projected at 127.9 million tons, down 0.6 million.
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The information provided in this market insight is for general informational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. It is not intended to offer any financial recommendations or endorsements. Any decisions made based on the content are the sole responsibility of the reader.
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