The U.S. red meat and poultry sectors are facing a period of recovery, influenced by varying supply levels, disease outbreaks, and market demands. The overall production for 2025 is forecast to decline compared to 2024, with significant changes across different meat types impacting both domestic and export markets.
U.S. total red meat and poultry production is set to decrease in 2025, with variations across different types of meats influencing domestic and export markets.
Beef production is forecasted lower in 2025, while pork, broiler, and turkey productions are expected to increase.
Market prices for cattle in 2025 are projected higher, contrasting with lower hog and broiler prices, and a significant increase in turkey prices.
The total red meat and poultry production for 2024 has been revised downward from previous forecasts. Beef production for 2024 is slightly increased due to higher cattle slaughter and heavier dressed weights in the latter half of the year. Conversely, pork production is adjusted downward due to expected lighter dressed weights, despite an initial increase in slaughter. Broiler production sees a decrease based on first-quarter slaughter data, with no change anticipated for the remainder of the year. Turkey production is also lowered, reflecting weaker returns and challenging market conditions affecting production levels. Egg production, however, is revised upwards, aligning with recent data trends.
Looking ahead to 2025, beef production is expected to decrease due to tighter cattle supplies and increased retention of heifers and cows, reducing slaughter numbers. In contrast, pork production is projected to rise, driven by improvements in pigs per litter that offset reductions in farrowing. Broiler production is set to increase, benefiting from lower feed costs and reduced competition from other red meat supplies. Turkey production is expected to rise as the industry recovers from the impacts of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI). Similarly, egg production is forecasted to increase as flocks are rebuilt.
Beef exports for 2025 are anticipated to be lower due to constrained domestic supplies, while beef imports will likely increase to meet demand, especially for processing-grade beef. Pork exports are expected to grow, bolstered by competitive pricing and heightened demand in key markets. Broiler exports will also increase, though this growth may be moderated by international competition. Turkey exports are projected to slightly increase as production recovers.
In terms of pricing, cattle prices in 2025 are forecasted to rise above 2024 levels due to tighter supplies. However, hog prices are expected to decrease owing to an increase in hog supplies. Broiler prices might slightly decrease due to expanded production, while turkey prices are set to increase. Egg prices are projected to be lower compared to 2024, following an increase in supply.
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The information provided in this market insight is for general informational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. It is not intended to offer any financial recommendations or endorsements. Any decisions made based on the content are the sole responsibility of the reader.
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