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2024 Milk Production Forecast Falls, will 2025 Prices Rise?

Writer's picture: Avi ShaposhnikAvi Shaposhnik

The USDA’s latest projections indicate a downward revision in milk production for 2024 and 2025 due to lower milk cow inventories and slower growth in output per cow. Meanwhile, export competitiveness and price adjustments reflect contrasting trends in U.S. dairy products.


  • Milk 2024 production and 2025 forecasts are lowered, citing reduced inventories and slower output per cow growth.

  • Fat basis imports and exports are expected to increase, driven by strong demand for U.S. cheese and butter, while skim-solids exports are lowered due to reduced competitiveness.

  • The all-milk price is adjusted to $22.60 per cwt for 2024 and $23.05 per cwt for 2025, reflecting lower production and higher product prices.


Dairy Products
Dairy Products

Milk production forecasts for 2024 and 2025 have been reduced, influenced by lower milk cow inventories and slower growth in milk per cow output. The upcoming USDA Cattle report will provide insights into producer plans for retaining dairy heifers for herd additions.


 Fat basis imports are expected to rise in both years due to increased cheese and butter imports, while skim-solids basis imports are unchanged for 2024 and lowered for 2025, reflecting reduced casein and milk protein concentrate imports. Fat basis exports are projected higher for 2024 and 2025, driven by competitive U.S. butter and cheese prices. Skim-solids exports, however, are lowered due to less competitive nonfat dry milk (NDM) and whey in global markets.


For 2025, prices for cheese, butter, NDM, and whey are all expected to rise, supported by reduced milk production and steady demand. The Class III and Class IV price forecasts are raised, while the all-milk price for 2024 is revised to $22.60 per cwt and for 2025 is increased to $23.05 per cwt.


Hedgify enables businesses to mitigate dairy market volatility by providing tools to secure stable pricing and navigate fluctuating costs effectively.


The information provided in this market insight is for general informational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. It is not intended to offer any financial recommendations or endorsements. Any decisions made based on the content are the sole responsibility of the reader.

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