top of page
Writer's pictureAvi Shaposhnik

A roller coaster of supply, demand, and pricing in the corn market

Updated: Aug 21, 2023

Navigating the corn market dynamics becomes simpler with platforms like Hedgify. This month's outlook for 2023/24 brings forward significant changes in corn landscape. We're seeing shifts in supplies, consumption patterns, and even global trade dynamics.

  • Although there's a noticeable dip in the U.S. corn production forecast for 2023/24, the projected numbers still stand impressively strong. In fact, if these predictions hold, the output would be the second-highest ever recorded, only behind the 2016/17 season.

  • Recent trends indicate a contraction in the U.S. domestic corn consumption. A significant part of this decrease is attributed to lowered usage in exports and reductions in corn utilized for glucose, dextrose, and starch. This is a clear shift from previous patterns.

  • The per-acre yield forecast for corn shows a decline when contrasted with last month's estimations. The newly projected yield stands at 175.1 bushels per acre, marking a 2.4 bushels reduction from prior projections.

  • Currently, the season-average corn price for producers experiencing an uptick. Specifically, there's been a 10-cent rise, setting the price at $4.90 per bushel.

The U.S. beginning stock raised by 55 million bushels from last year due to reduced use in 2022/23 in areas like exports and starch production. Production dropped to 15.1 billion bushels, but still making it the second highest after 2016/17. Yield per acre also goes down to 175.1 bushels. The domestic use decreased by 95 million bushels, summing up to 14.4 billion. On the pricing, producers can expect a bit more, with prices going up 10 cents, averaging at $4.90 per bushel.


While states like Indiana, Iowa, Nebraska, Ohio, and South Dakota enjoy higher yields than the previous year, Illinois, Minnesota, and Missouri anticipate reduced outcomes.


International production is going down, with major reductions in the EU, China, and Russia. However, Ukraine and Canada might see a rise. U.S. and EU are exporting less corn, but Ukraine remains unchanged. While Canada and Zimbabwe might increase their corn imports, Egypt, Vietnam, and Algeria will probably cut down.


The ending stocks of foreign corn are decreasing, especially in China, Zambia, and Russia. However, Ukraine and South Africa might witness growth.


In the fluctuating realm of corn markets, making informed decisions becomes pivotal. Leveraging the analytical and strategic tools of Hedgify can guide stakeholders to execute their plans effectively, optimizing their market position.


The information provided in this market insight is for general informational purposes and should not be considered as financial advice. It is not intended to offer any financial recommendations or endorsements. Any decisions made based on the content are the sole responsibility of the reader.

Comments


bottom of page